On November 12, 2023, the Edmonton Oilers fired then-head-coach Jay Woodcroft. A move that, at the time, was considered to be the wrong one, with multiple Oilers fans (myself included) citing Jay's record as Oilers HC (best winning% in franchise history), the lack of goaltending (something he couldn't control), and advanced analytics saying Edmonton was better than their 3-9-1 record indicated. Furthermore, the optics surrounding his replacement, Kris Knoblauch, was just awful. Knoblauch used to coach Connor McDavid when Connor was in the OHL with the Eerie Otters, and while he was considered an up-and-coming coaching prospect, his AHL coaching record was meh at best, WAYYYYY worse than Jay's at the time of hiring in February 2022.
Welp 13 games later, the Oilers are 10-3 under Kris Knoblauch, their currently riding an 8-game winning streak, AND have gone from 3-9-1 to 13-12-1, one point out of a playoff spot. This does beg the question, are the Oilers smarter than we give them credit for, considering it looks like the move is working.
I'd give it a 50/50. On the one hand, Kris' changes have had a positive impact. The PK (something that struggled under Jay and Dave Manson) is currently on a heater (25/26 = 96.1%), the forward lines (save for line 2) are set just right and performing well (espcially the top line of Nuge-McDavid-Hyman), the defensive structure is improved and working well, and the goaltending (aka Stuart Skinner) is no longer giving up weak goals. On the other hand, Edmonton was too good to remain that bad for much longer. The stats and analytics said that a turnaround was going to happen, and Edmonton would start performing as expected.
Now I want to preface that I liked Jay. I like his attitude, his energy, what he brought to the table. He more than earned his winning percentage, and for the longest time, it looked like he unlocked the key to success in Edmonton. That being said, it seems like the firing of Jay was the jolt Edmonton needed to wake up and actually start playing, because they look like the team that went 18-2-1 in the final 21 games last year.
Too add to that, Jay's lineup decisions were sometimes questionable, and his insistence on changing up the defensive structure seemed to mess with Edmonton to the point where they couldn't do anything on the defensive side of the game.
So, was the firing of Jay the correct move? Right now? Yes, it was. Down the road? Who knows? But this team is in "win now" mode and "down the road" doesn't matter. What matters is happening RIGHT NOW and right now, Kris is knocking it out of the park.
