The Crowded Crease

So tomorrow is July 1st, which means two things. One, we in Canada celebrate the country's 151st birthday, and two, ITS FREE AGENT FRENZY DAY! One of the many days hockey fans look forward too is the craziness of free agent day. Where teams pay through the roof to have some high profile free agent come and play for them. This year, the big fish target is John Tavares. But enough about that, let's talk goalies.

I mention free agency day because there are several goalies available on the market. Craig Andersson apparently wants out of Ottawa, Buffalo didn't qualify Robin Lehner while also reportedly going after Carter Hutton, and several quality backups can be found in Petr Mrazek, Jonathan Bernier, and Cam Ward. Now I know what you're thinking dear reader, "don't the Oilers already have a starter in Cam Talbot and a backup in Al Montoya?", and yes, you would be correct. And more.

See the Oilers actually have 3 goalies signed for next year. ALL of them in the final year of their deals. Talbot (who will be making $4,166,667), Montoya ($1,062,500), and newly signed KHL goalie Mikko Koskinen ($2,500,000). Now that is one crowded and expensive ($7,729,167) goal crease. So why would I mention UFA goalies, and then go and tell you about the 3 goalies Edmonton has under contract? Because I'm here to point out, what I believe to be, Chiarelli's plan for his goalies as well as mention something I would've done if I was in Peter's position. Let's start with the plan. I call it...

...

Operation: Goal Mouth

Based on my own analysis of the situation, as well as a similar situation having been played out before, here is what I believe Operation Goal Mouth is going to be. Heading to the training camp for the 2015-2016 season, the Oilers had 3 goalies that could make the roster. Cam Talbot (acquired from the New York Rangers), Anders Nilsson (signed after playing in the KHL), and Ben Scrivens (acquired from the LA Kings). That year, Talbot was slated to be the Oilers starter with Scrivens and Nilsson battling for the backup job. Nilsson won the job and backed up Cam Talbot...for about a month. For some odd reason, probably due to being a starter for the first time in his career, Talbot faltered early on in the season, and Nilsson temporarily took on the starting job for Edmonton. And he did good too. He helped the Oilers actually creep into the playoff conversation, but for whatever reason HIS play died out too, allowing Talbot to retake the job as the Oilers starting goalie. A job he has yet to relinquish.

And while some might view that as just the ups and downs of a goalie during a season, a quote from a Steve Dangle video got me thinking.

"And while Talbot has taken the starting job from Anders Nilsson, Nilsson has played his fair chunk of the games, and it's been to Talbot's benefit".

I believe it. Nilsson played 26 games in 2015-2016 with Edmonton, going 10-12-2 with a 3.14 GAA and a .901sv%. Admittedly, they're not the best stats for a goalie to have but, again, his best stretches of play was when he was in the starting job for a month and a half. When Talbot retook the crease, he had a stellar second half. In the last 17 games of that season, Talbot had a 9-6-2 record with 2 shutouts and a .930 save percentage. In fact, following the All-Star break, Talbot was #1 in the NHL with a .920 save percentage.

And that's how I see this situation playing out. I am fully on board with the idea of re-signing Cam Talbot REGARDLESS of how next season plays out. The Oilers have some good goaltending prospects in Dylan Well, Stuart Skinner, and now Oliver Rodrigue. But I also think that Koskinen will do fine and push Talbot to be better.

Now in terms of the thing I would've done...I would've waited. I don't mind the Koskinen deal, but considering there are guys who are proven to be quality NHL goalies, I can't see why Chiarelli didn't wait. If it was a question about money, I can't Chiarelli dealing out more than the $2.5M he gave to Koskinen. If it was an issue about playing for Edmonton, then I can see why. With the rumors of Lucic's family being harassed, the actual documented video of McDavid's family getting harassed, I can see why nobody would want to play here. Or maybe Chiarelli didn't wany any of them. Whatever the reason is, I'm sure Chiarelli knows what he's doing. Lord knows he's the best GM this team has had in 10 years.

Pre-Draft - Who does Edmonton take?

Tonight is the NHL Awards in Vegas. On Friday, Peter Chiarelli and Co. will be at the draft table in Dallas, Texas, taking part in the 2018 NHL entry draft. The Oilers currently have 6 picks to be used in this year's draft. A first (10th overall), second (40th overall), third (71st overall), fifth (133rd overall), sixth (164th overall), and a seventh (195th overall). As with every draft year, some crazy trade goes down and I'm expecting nothing less from this year's draft. However my focus is on the Oilers selecting 10th overall and using that pick on a good prospect.

Going into this draft, I was of the opinion that the Oilers should draft either Adam Boqvist or Noah Dobson. At this time, both were equally rated, both could easily help Edmonton, and both were opposites. When the draft rankings first came out, the scouting report on Adam Boqvist was that he was a good puck mover, offensively minded, could quarterback a powerplay, though his defensive game needed work. Noah Dobson was rated as a guy who was a good puck mover, defensively minded, could quarterback a powerplay, though his offensive game needed work. Then the memorial cup happened and Dobson's performance caused his stock to rise. All of a sudden, a guy who could go 10th overall to Edmonton, is now seen as a guy who WILL be gone by the time Edmonton gets to podium.

Alas, all hope is not lost. There are still some great players to be had. Now Oilers fans are in a tizzy about who Edmonton should draft. Some want Boqvist, some want Bode Wilde, others want Ty Smith, other want Oliver Walhstrom. Point is, there are tons of prospects fans want the Oilers to pick. Of course, the question now is, who is Edmonton going to pick? Who's name do they call when it's their turn to select? Or do they package the 10th pick in a deal?

Let me start by saying, I don't think Edmonton should trade the 10th pick and I don't think they're even considering it. When the draft lottery results came out, I'm sure Chiarelli had a plan in mind to package their pick in a deal to get an immediate roster player. However with the way the market is right now, combined with the highly ranked defencemen, I feel Peter will keep the pick, unless some kind of slam-dunk deal falls into his lap. So that partially eliminates the trade theory (I say that because lots can change between 1123 ET on June 20th to 2000 ET on Friday June 22). So that leaves the drafting option.

Mock drafts have been put out over the past week and most of them have the Oilers drafting Adam Boqvist at 10th overall. This makes sense to me. Boqvist is a right-handed shot defenceman who is offensively minded, can move the puck well, and can quarterback a powerplay. The Oilers sorely need a guy who is a right-handed shot defenceman, who can move the puck well, and one who can quarterback a powerply. Boqvist checks off all of the boxes for Edmonton. Yes his defensive game needs work, but that's why you develop a player in the AHL. And with Boqvist being a 10th overall selection, there is no pressure on him or Edmonton to have him in the opening night lineup.

I did read somewhere that Boqvist is dyslexic and therefore Edmonton shouldn't draft him, due to Edmonton not being able to competently accommodate Jesse Puljujarvi. To which I say...I can't comment. I don't know if this was a lazy rumour or not, but if Boqvist fills a need for Edmonton, then they should draft him. Unless one of Erik Karlsson, John Carlson, or PK Subban are somehow coming to Edmonton in a deal, I don't see how Edmonton doesn't pick Adam Boqvist on Friday.

So to conclude, I expect to hear "With the 10th overall pick in the 2018 entry draft, the Oilers are happy to select, Adam Boqvist" on Friday night.

Surving Taylor Hall

On June 29th 2016, the Edmonton Oilers stunned the hockey world by trading Taylor Hall to the New Jersey Devils in exchange for Adam Larsson. Fans in Edmonton were immediately perplexed as the Oilers traded one of the best left wingers in the game for a guy most people in Edmonton had never heard of. 2 days later, the Oilers signed winger Milan Lucic to a deal, seemingly putting the trade into perspective. That next season, the Oilers rocketed up the league standings, and made the playoffs, breaking their 10-year playoff drought. Taylor's absence from the team was rarely brought up that year as the Devils faltered down the standings and Larsson's defensive play was well recieved by the fansbase. A year later, the script was reversed. While Larsson's play was consistent (though he did deal with an injury and the passing of his father), Hall's Devils went on a tear. Hall provided much of the offence for the Devils, riding a long point streak and earning a spot on the Hart trophy ballot. With the Oilers struggling to score at times this season (being shut out 9 times this past season), fans were once again perplexed at the trade and also a little pissed, saying that having Hall on the Oilers would've helped the team either score a goal or make the playoffs. While I am supportive of the idea that Hall would've helped the Oilers more last season, I am also making the argument that the Oilers are doing fine without him. Here's why.

With that in mind, I decided to take a look at the goals for and against the Oilers from Hall's draft year to now. This is what I found:

Taylor Hall's rookie season was in the 2010-11 season. That year, the Oilers finished 30th overall in the NHL with a record of 25-45-12. In 82 games, the Oilers potted 193 goals, and surrendered 269. The 2011-12 season was slightly better. The Oilers finished 29th with a record of 32-40-10. They scored 212 goals, giving up 239. In the shortened, 2012-13 season, Edmonton finished 24th  overall with a record of 19-22-7. They scored 125 goals and surrendered 134. In 2013-14 they went 29-44-9 scoring 203 goals and giving up 270. In the 2014-15 season, they went 24-44-14 scoring 198 and giving up 283. In McDavid's rookie year, Edmonton went 31-43-8 whilst scoring 203 goals and giving up 247. In the Oilers first year without Hall, Edmonton went 47-26-9. They scored 247 goals and surrendered 212. Last season, Edmonton went 36-40-6 whilst scoring 234 goals and giving up 263.

In the past two seasons WITHOUT Taylor Hall, the Oilers scored 247 and 234 goals respectively. The Oilers WITH Hall never even came close to those numbers, the closest being 212 in 2010-11. Now, much of this has to do with McDavid potting 208 points in those two years, but the Oilers, so far, have managed to survive without Taylor Hall offensively. His departure didn't create a massive hole in the Oilers offense. It created a hole that hasn't be adequately filled yet, but his departure hasn't crippled the team offensively. Sure, last year Taylor Hall would've helped pop one or two more goals in a game. But offensively, the Oilers are doing just fine without him.

Do players want out of Edmonton?

So while rummaging through Twitter yesterday, I saw a couple of tweets that caught my eyes. The first was a tweet from Bob Stauffer, who tweeted that while he doesn't think the Oilers would trade their 10th overall pick or chase after any significant UFA's, they would trade a player with term to get another player who provides a different skill-set. Immediately, Oil Country started the speculation wheel, with many coming to the conclusion that Oscar Klefbom was on his way out of town. Then I saw a few more tweets saying that the Oilers were adding Milan Lucic to a supposed deal to "sweeten the pot", as well as tweets saying that Lucic was open to a trade out of Edmonton. While I do agree that Lucic had a bad season last year, his career numbers, as well as how the overall 2017-2018 Oilers performed suggested to me that Lucic will rebound. However with everything that's happened, it does make me wonder. Do players want out of Edmonton? Well, here's my take.

Playing for a Canadian team in the NHL must be a pain in the butt. Along with higher tax rates in Canada, the media and fan attention the Canadian teams receive is through the roof, especially in markets where no other pro sports teams exist. Edmonton is no exception. Due to the lack of other pro-sports teams, coupled with the success of the organization in the 80's, the Oilers are the go-to team for most sports fans living in the city. As someone pointed out on Twitter, when the Oilers are succeeding, players and coaches feel like they're on top of the world. But when the team is failing (as it has done for so many years), the city feels small and depressing. Forget about Edmonton for a second, when Phil Kessel was traded to the Penguins, he commented how the media pressure in Pittsburgh was so much less than it was in Toronto. Even Taylor Hall has said he enjoyed the ability to walk around New Jersey without worrying about people recognizing him or bad-mouthing him.

One of the more shocking stories to come out of Edmonton last season was a report that a group of "Oilers fans" were bad-mouthing Connor McDavid and his family at a restaurant. Let me say that again. Some "fans" were bad-mouthing the captain of the team, and the guy who would go on to save the Oilers from all kinds of humility by finishing the season with 108 points. One of the problems I have with social media is that people image can get tarnished by incriminating photos and bad tweets (as Roseanne Barr found out). Social media also allows people to heavily criticize others, and sports athletes are no exception. Sure, when someone does a blunder in the sports world, it's funny to see how people react. But social media outlets, give people a chance to easily bad-mouth people, behind a key-board.

So do players want out of Edmonton? Yes. With the combination of fan outrage over what transpired this past season along with the past dozen years, topped with the media pressure of a Canadian team winning the Stanley Cup again, I'm not surprised at players requesting trades out of the city. And that's not including any potential locker room issues that might be present.